Supporting regional adaptation to climate change by socio-scientific surveys, simulation and scenarios
The research project KUBUS is part of the climate change adaptation network Klimawandel zukunftsfähig gestalten (KLIMZUG) in the region Northern Hesse and is founded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The transdisciplinary joint research project started in October 2008 and shall develop, implement and test new structures, institutions, products and services that are sustainable with respect to a successful adaptation to climate change. In this it is meant to be exemplary for other regions.
The KUBUS project strives to qualitatively and quantitatively represent individual perceptions of regional impacts of climate change, individual attitudes and options of action accordingly, comprising some of their trajectories. Uncertainties, fears as well as opportunities and potentials of conflict need to be considered. Possible changes of individual behaviour like change of habit or preventative measures are investigated including their acceptance among the socially interacting population.
Therefore, empiric surveys are conducted which focus on psychological indicators and processes. Moreover, a multi-agent-based computer simulation of scenarios of societal adaptation processes is developed. The simulation is based on empirically gained data as well as on geographically differentiated, demographical-economic data to capture individual perceptions of local opportunities and restrictions derived from several scenarios of climate change. Agents represent spatially distributed households that are grouped according to their lifestyle. The model also represents the social network to incorporate changes of view among the agents.
Mainly regarding the identification of hot spots there are interfaces to some other KLIMZUG research projects, which are Regional Tourism, Health Care, Individual Traffic, Legal Questions and Regional Governance, and also the so-called Climate Adaptation Agents representing administrative districts.
Results of the KUBUS research project will be information about the interplay of barriers and incentives regarding the individual action of adaption and their trajectories until 2030. Individual perceptions will be presented with appropriate spatial resolution. The results will be provided to the other KIMZUG research projects and practitioners, but also be integrated into courses for public and staff the so-called Climate Adaptation Academy will offer.
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)
October 2008 − June 2013