Aggregates (sand, gravel, crushed stone) make up half of all globally extracted materials and present substantial environmental challenges. China, which consumes half of the world’s aggregates, is undergoing profound shifts in both supply and demand. Our scenario-based model tracks aggregate flows and stocks across 30 end-uses in Chinese provinces from 1978 to 2050. We find that China’s aggregate demand peaked around 2015, accompanied by a gradual and continuous shift from natural to manufactured aggregates. Total demand after 2030 is projected to decline to ~50% of 2020 levels in circular economy scenarios. Per capita stocks tend to saturate by 2040, although saturation timing varies across provinces. Stock saturation may lead to increased availability of recycled aggregates, which could become a primary supply source. We highlight the critical need for stricter policies and regulations for the aggregate industry, offering insights for other economies facing similar challenges.
