C3: Scaling the simulations to the whole of Hesse and estimating the climate impact on the crops studied

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The consequences of climate change for arable farming in Germany are already becoming apparent (increased dry periods, especially in spring, more frequent heavy rainfall events, warmer winters, longer growing seasons, a higher probability of heat episodes during the growing seasons. Climate analyses and yield forecasts also show clear regional differences in the expected changes. Given the great natural heterogeneity in Hesse, the processes and yield forecasts determined and simulated in TRIO for the individual trial areas are therefore not necessarily representative for the whole of Hesse. A region-specific identification of the climatic differences and the resulting chances of success of the investigated measures is therefore necessary in order to assess their feasibility for the whole of Hesse.

Against this background, the model simulations with the DSSAT-CMF model are extended to the whole of Hesse in SP C3. Regional differences in yields, material flows and stress factors (e.g. drought stress) resulting from natural and climatic differences will be investigated. Particular attention is paid to small-scale climate changes in Hesse in order to be able to make regional and Hesse-wide statements about the suitability of the crops studied (wheat, coriander and caraway) under future climatic conditions.

Work packages and participants

WP 1: Scaling up the DSSAT-CMF simulations to the whole of Hesse

WP 2: Simulation of small-scale climate change impacts on selected crops for the whole of Hesse