Research focus 3: Transformation of the automotive industry

The transformation of industry has begun, bringing with it far-reaching changes in the temporal and spatial organization of production networks. Investments in new plants are influenced by political framework conditions and individual decisions, while short-term production planning and capacity utilization are largely determined by various markets, which in turn are strongly influenced by government regulations.

In our research focus on dynamics in production networks, we investigate how the energy transition and defossilization affect the production networks of energy- and resource-intensive basic industries. The focus is on several closely interlinked topics:

• Long-term spatial effects: How does industrial transformation change the geographical distribution of production capacities and trade relations? For example, the expansion of renewable energies could lead to energy-intensive industries relocating to regions with a high availability of green energy. These shifts have an impact on Europe, but also in particular on regions that are currently heavily dependent on the extraction of raw materials, for example in the Global South.
• Volatility in energy and commodity markets: Fluctuations in the availability of renewable energy, commodity prices and volatile product markets affect production and global supply chains. These volatilities have an impact on plant capacity utilization and pose challenges for the stability of business models and employment.
• Resilience of production systems: We aim to investigate how resilient production networks are to sudden shocks, such as energy shortages or commodity crises. This resilience is crucial to ensure the continuity of production processes and plays a central role in investment decisions.
• Role of infrastructures: How do existing and future infrastructures - such as energy and transport networks - influence the organization of production networks? Not only the expansion of electricity grids for renewable energies is important here, but also the adaptation of logistics and distribution networks for decentralized production.

To answer these questions, we use scenario analyses as a central method, supported by various modeling approaches, including

• A simulation model for production networks that depicts the distribution and organization of production capacities depending on political, economic and infrastructural factors.
• Material flow analysis models that track resource flows along the entire production chain and the life cycle of products and analyze the effects on product demand and waste flows.
• A dynamic life cycle analysis, with which we evaluate the environmental impact of production processes over their life cycle and assess the ecological effects of transformation strategies.