Project Description

The expansion of wind and solar energy is leading to greater fluctuations in the electricity supply, causing very low or very high electricity prices to occur more frequently than in the past. Flexible energy sources are therefore becoming increasingly important for maintaining a balance between supply and demand in the electricity system at all times.

Hydropower plants offer great flexibility and storage capacity. In practice, however, their operation is often guided by the current situation. Forecasts regarding weather, inflows, and electricity markets have so far been incorporated into decision-making only to a limited extent. Existing uncertainties are therefore not systematically taken into account during operation, meaning that economic potential remains untapped.

This is where the FLOW collaborative project comes in. The goal is to systematically improve decision-making processes in hydropower operations and prepare the plants for the requirements of future energy systems. By developing systematic forecasting and planning approaches, the aim is to better account for uncertainties in the future and strengthen the economic viability of hydropower so that it can continue to contribute reliably to the energy supply even under changing market and system conditions.

To systematically improve decision-making processes in hydropower operations, FLOW is developing new planning and control approaches that integrate forecasts of weather, inflows, and electricity markets across various time horizons into plant operations. Over the long-term time horizon of ten to twenty years, FLOW analyzes potential developments in energy systems and electricity markets. This enables assessments of the future role and economic viability of hydropower and supports strategic investment decisions.

In the medium term, the integration of seasonal weather and inflow forecasts for periods ranging from weeks to months is being tested in market simulation models. The study examines whether price signals and reservoir levels can improve the operational scheduling of hydropower plants.

For short-term operations, FLOW is developing automated schedules for hydropower plants with a planning horizon of 24 to 48 hours. These schedules simultaneously take into account expected electricity prices, renewable energy feed-in, and technical, environmental, and water management requirements.

A central component of the project is the development of an assistance system for the control room at LEW Wasserkraft in Gersthofen. This system supports operating personnel with transparent recommendations for action and reduces the manual planning effort. Testing under real-world operating conditions ensures that the developed solutions can be applied to other hydropower plants and river systems.

The methods and tools developed in the project improve the technical and economic use of hydropower and strengthen its role as a climate-friendly flexibility option in the energy system. Operators gain a reliable basis for decision-making regarding planning, operations, and investments.

During ongoing operations, the developed methods enable more precise scheduling, better use of weather and inflow forecasts, and greater responsiveness to high water, low water, or sharp price fluctuations. This reduces the planning burden and allows decisions to be made in a more reliable and transparent manner. The improved decision-making basis makes it possible to deploy hydropower more strategically in various market situations: During periods of high electricity prices and tight generation capacity, it contributes more significantly to security of supply and reduces the use of fossil fuel power plants. Conversely, when there is high feed-in from wind and solar energy, hydropower can be deployed flexibly to support the grid, thereby facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources.

Following a successful demonstration at the pilot site, the developed approaches can be applied to other hydropower plants and river systems. In this way, FLOW lays the foundation for the widespread application of forecast-based planning and operational procedures in hydropower and contributes to a flexible and climate-friendly energy supply.