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Heat Transition of the Urban Building Stock by Interactive Decision Space Analysis

Achieving German climate protection targets by 2030 requires a significant increase of renewable energy for heat provision in buildings as well as strong incentives for energetic renovation. The former can be achieved by switching to heat pumps as well as extensions of thermal heating grids fed by a high proportion of renewable energies. The transition requires high investments by building owners which need to align with plans for the local energy infrastructure. Obstacles and retentions need to be addressed to operate thermal grids effectively and cost efficiently.

Local infrastructure such as thermal grids and preferences as well as the scope of action of building owners need to align for sustainable heat provision.

Stakeholders in Kiel

The participatory approach of the decision making process is important. Stakeholders get informed by workshops and decision theatres and initially state their criteria and formal as well as economic boundary conditions. Results of the planning tools are played back to stakeholders to receive their evaluation. For the first application the state capital Kiel is involved.

In­te­gra­ti­on of Planning Tools

The project WAERMER shall apply a methodical integration of energy system optimisation on an urban level and agent-based modelling of individual investment behaviour including preferences and scope of action. It shall help identify the requirements for a successful transition of heat provision in the urban building stock towards CO2-neutrality. Building owners are surveyed about relevant factors of their investment decision making. In an iterative process, measures to incentivise individual investments can be developed and simulated as well as required adaptations to the technical energy system identified. The agent-based modelling explicitly considers the influence of energy consultants and craftspeople concerning their changing knowledge and recommendations.

Interative exploration by multi-criteria-analysis and agent-based simulation

Stakeholders in Kiel

Of great importance is the participatory character of the decision support process, which informs and involves stakeholders in workshops and so-called decision theaters. The first step is to identify criteria and formal and economic constraints within which the institutional and economic actors of the partner municipality operate. The results of the planning tools are then fed back to the stakeholders, who can evaluate them. The state capital Kiel was won over as a pilot municipality for the project funded by the BMWK.

FundingFederal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action
Period08/2022 - 07/2025
PartnersFraunhofer IEE, Uni Kassel (CESR), Landeshauptstadt Kiel
StaffDr. Sascha Holzhauer, Dr. Friedrich Krebs, Ivan Digel, Alwina Kaiser
Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action