Systemic Monitoring and Modelling of the Bioeconomy
(1) Define an appropriate framework for a systemic monitoring
The expectations about the BE from politics, economy, NGOs and science are systemized. Important criteria and indicators for its assessment are identified.
(2) Development of a modelling and assessing system
A multi-scale system for the analysis of the BE with regard to sustainability is developed. Material-flow models, Input-Output- databases, econometric models and land- & water use models are linked. Footprints of land, forest, water use and GHG emissions are calculated and the socio-economic balance of the BE is determined.
(3) Analysis of the key drivers for the BE transformation
Trend determining factors are analyzed: agricultural production systems, diet systems, food waste, energetic and material use of biomass, recycling economy and cascading use as well as new technologies.
(4) Modelling of recent trends and their impact to environment and socio-economy
Analysis of past trends and status quo. Counterfactual modelling is explored to estimate the effect of BE. Prospective development trends and their impact are modelled as well.
(5) Indicators and data generated by certification and life-cycle assessment
The use of date generated by certification and LCA by regular monitoring of the BE will be explored.
(6) Development of a monitoring system
A pilot monitoring report of the German BE is provided. An interactive website is created where data and characteristics of the BE can be explored. Remote sensing techniques are tested nationally and internationally to show the influence of land use change on biodiversity. The results are used for monitoring and certification purposes.
University of Kassel, Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR)
FB 11 Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, www.uni-kassel.de/fb11/
Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), www.ufz.de
Deutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum (DBFZ), www.dbfz.de
Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS), www.gws-os.com
Institute of applied Ecology (Öko-Institut), www.oeko.de
INFRO Informationssysteme für Rohstoffe, www.infro.eu
MEO Carbon Solutions GmbH, www.meo-carbon.com
IFEU – Institute for Energy and Environment, www.ifeu.de