10/07/2026 | Press Release

Computer Models for the Amazon: Integrating Land, Climate, and Society

Institutional reforms and sustainable agroforestry systems can protect ecosystems in the Amazon region more effectively than land-use restrictions alone. This is the conclusion reached by the PRODIGY 2 collaborative project, funded by the Federal Ministry of Research, Technology, and Space and involving the University of Kassel. To this end, a team led by Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Schaldach expanded the Kassel land-use model LandSHIFT to enable the joint analysis of societal developments and climate processes.

Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Schaldach, Kassel Institute for Sustainability (KIS).

The research focused on the transboundary MAP region between Peru (Madre de Dios), Brazil (Acre), and Bolivia (Pando).

The findings of the researchers from Kassel suggest that targeted policy mechanisms can limit deforestation more effectively than purely spatial land-use bans. The scenarios developed therefore rely less on further land expansion and more on the qualitative enhancement of existing areas—for example, through agroforestry systems, strengthened regional value creation, and reliable governance. In addition, the simulations show that targeted reforestation can significantly stabilize regional precipitation and temperature patterns.

Participatory Research Meets Climate Modeling

Methodologically, the team combined computer models with empirical fieldwork. In collaboration with the University of Hamburg, the researchers linked the extended land-use model LandSHIFT with the regional climate model WRF to calculate altered land-climate interactions. At the same time, they developed concrete pathways toward a deforestation-free future in participatory workshops together with stakeholders from academia, government, and civil society.

“While purely scientific climate models show us the dramatic consequences of forest loss, they often leave out the crucial societal levers,” emphasizes Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Schaldach, head of the subproject at the University of Kassel. “By linking the framework conditions developed participatively in the scenarios with the simulation results, we are making a valuable contribution to expanding the knowledge base for decision-makers and local civil society. This approach demonstrates how models, in combination with transdisciplinary approaches, can help identify paths out of the crisis.”

The approaches developed in the project are now being incorporated into international scholarly discourse and form the basis for further publications on the future of tropical socio-ecological systems.

Final Report: https://oa.tib.eu/renate/server/api/core/bitstreams/2be3c293-7c7e-477d-8cc1-ee9e9327bb20/content

Scenario Paper on Peru: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328726001424

Contact:
Rüdiger Schaldach (Adjunct Prof. Dr.)
Center for Environmental Systems Research
Head of the Global and Regional Dynamics
Research Group Phone: 0561 804-6130
Email: schaldac[at]uni.kassel[dot]de

What does this mean in summary?

Effective Protection: Institutional reforms and sustainable agroforestry systems protect the Amazon more effectively than land-use restrictions alone.
Innovative Modeling Approach: Researchers at the University of Kassel linked the LandSHIFT land-use model with the WRF climate model and social data from the transboundary MAP region.
Climate stabilization: The simulations show that targeted reforestation and the qualitative enhancement of existing land areas can significantly stabilize regional precipitation and temperature patterns.