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Study: „Declining Demand and Circular Transition Possibilities of Sand, Gravel and Crushed Stone in China“.
Researchers from the Kassel Institute for Sustainability (KIS) contributed to a study published in Nature Communicationstitled “Declining Demand and Circular Transition Possibilities of Sand, Gravel and Crushed Stone in China.”
The high-resolution material flow model CHAMPS reveals that China’s demand for mineral construction materials peaked around 2015 at 18.8 billion tonnes per year and has since been heading toward a long-term decline. Under an integrated circular scenario, recycled construction materials could cover around 48% of total demand by 2050, marking an important step toward a resource-efficient and sustainable construction sector.
At the same time, the study highlights significant regional differences: while eastern provinces show largely saturated material stocks, several western regions continue to experience growing demand.
The results provide an empirical basis for evidence-based resource policy and offer insights transferable to other economies.
First author Zijian Ren and his supervisor Bing Zhu from the renowned Tsinghua University collaborated with Stefan Bringezu and Clemens Mostert from the Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR), University of Kassel, as well as other international partners.
Ren, Z., Jiang, M., Behrens, P., Chen, D., Mostert, C., Zhou, W., Li, C., Li, F., Liu, L., Wang, H., Xu, M., Hertwich, E., Bringezu, S., & Zhu, B. (2025). Declining demand and circular transition possibilities of sand, gravel and crushed stone in China. Nat Commun 16, 9294.