This page contains automatically translated content.

Back
11/13/2025 | Press Release

Research Group develops four energy scenarios for Europe's climate targets

How could Europe's energy system become climate-neutral, resilient and fair by 2060? An international research team with the participation of Dr. Franziska Hoffart from the University of Kassel has developed four scenarios that show different paths to climate neutrality - from a largely energy self-sufficient continent to visions of the future that are characterized by international tensions. The results show that financial incentives, coordinated national energy policies, binding interim targets and the promotion of local energy initiatives are crucial to achieving climate and energy targets. At the same time, the scenarios reveal how geopolitical, technological and social developments influence Europe's energy supply.

Dr. Franziska Hoffart teaches at the University of Kassel with a transformative teaching concept that focuses on the acquisition of so-called future skills and empowers students to actively shape a sustainable future. She is also a senior researcher in the DFG project NFDI4Energy at the Sociological Research Institute Göttingen.Image: Sonja Rode.
Dr. Franziska Hoffart teaches at the University of Kassel with a transformative teaching concept that focuses on the acquisition of so-called future skills and empowers students to actively shape a sustainable future. She is also a senior researcher in the DFG project NFDI4Energy at the Sociological Research Institute Göttingen.

"Europe is warming faster than any other continent, around one degree more than the global average. In order to achieve the goal of climate neutrality by 2050, the European Union needs clear points of reference and ambition for the implementation of the energy transition," explains Hoffart, Deputy Professor of Transformational Economics at the Kassel Institute for Sustainability and Faculty of Economics at the University of Kassel. The four scenarios - EU Trinity, NECP Essentials, REPowerEU++ and Go RES - are intended to provide guidance.

At the same time, the work addresses a frequent criticism of energy scenarios: "Scenarios are often criticized for not taking sufficient account of social and non-technical factors. However, this is crucial because the energy transition is not a purely technical project, but is embedded in society and politics. We therefore take these factors into account in the form of qualitative narratives and then translate them into concrete figures," says Hoffart.

Based on the four scenarios, the researchers derive specific recommendations for action: One key lever is the creation of effective financial incentives, such as green bonds, to accelerate innovation. Harmonized national energy policies could strengthen the integration of European energy markets and joint infrastructure planning. Binding interim targets beyond the existing national energy and climate plans are equally important in order to make progress towards climate neutrality measurable. At the same time, the promotion of decentralized energy supply and local initiatives is seen as crucial for a socially just and regionally anchored energy transition.

The scenarios were developed using the Qualitative-to-Quantitative (Q2Q) matrix, which translates qualitative future narratives into quantitative calculations. This allows assumptions on policy, technology, infrastructure and energy consumption to be clearly compared and understood. In addition, two scenarios, REPowerEU++ and Go RES, were modeled using the GENeSYS-MOD energy system model, which maps electricity, buildings, transport and industry.

The scenarios developed are openly available and are intended to provide policymakers, businesses and scientists with a practical tool to better understand and overcome future uncertainties and challenges. "Being able to imagine different futures is an important skill - not only for research and policy advice, but also for our students," adds Hoffart. "This makes the future more tangible and helps to actively shape paths towards it."

The article was published in the journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032125007476?via%3Dihub.

 

What does this mean in summary?

  • Four future scenarios for Europe's energy transition: An international research team led by Dr. Franziska Hoffart (University of Kassel) has developed four energy scenarios - EU Trinity, NECP Essentials, REPowerEU++ and Go RES - that show different pathways to a climate-neutral, resilient and equitable Europe by 2060.
  • Key measures for climate neutrality: Financial incentives (e.g. green bonds), coordinated national energy policies, binding interim targets and the promotion of local energy initiatives are crucial in order to make progress measurable and ensure social justice.
  • Innovative approach and practical relevance: The scenarios also take social and political factors into account, are quantitatively evaluated using the Q2Q matrix and the GENeSYS-MOD model and are openly available - as a tool for politics, business, science and education to shape Europe's energy future in a targeted manner.