Kassel Turkey expert: Party system in Turkey could change fundamentally

The Kurdish-oriented HDP party plays a key role in this. It has been given a chance of clearing the 10 percent hurdle in the parliamentary elections on June 7 and entering parliament. "The HDP is now no longer just the party of Kurds, but also a party of women, Gezi protesters and those disappointed by Erdogan's social policies; it wants to campaign for more tolerance and minority rights," says Gieler, who teaches at the Department of Comparative Politics at Kassel University. "If she gets into parliament, these groups will get a voice. That will change Turkish society for good." An electoral defeat for Erdogan's AKP party could also lead to a breakaway of the party's liberal wing: "Since none of the opposition parties wants to form a coalition with the AKP, even uncertain majorities are possible in extreme cases."

However, if the HDP fails to clear the high hurdle for entering parliament, this could, for one thing, give the AKP a two-thirds majority in parliament. "Erdogan has announced that he will use this for constitutional reforms and a transformation to a presidential system," Gieler said. "The conservative sociopolitical course is then likely to continue." Second, there are likely to be clashes with disappointed HDP voters in the Kurdish-majority southeast. For this reason, the government has already tightened security laws - among other things, police officers are now allowed to shoot at violent demonstrations without having been attacked themselves. In terms of domestic policy, the main aim is to prevent a second Gezi Park scenario. 

Regardless of the election results, Gieler expects Turkey to seek closer ties with Russia: "Many Turks are disappointed with the EU after years of sluggish talks about a connection. However, the attempt to become a regional or even a leading power economically and politically has also failed." 

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Gieler is a lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of Kassel. Last year, he published a book on the Gezi protests in Istanbul. Soon, the volume "The New Turkey" will be published in cooperation with Turkish scholars. 

Prof. Gieler is available for questions and interviews. He can be reached by June 5 at the email address wolfgang.gieler[at]gmail[dot]com. 

The university's press office will be happy to provide a picture: presse[at]uni-kassel[dot]de.

Wolfgang Gieler/Burak Gümüş/Yunus Yoldaş (eds.): The New Turkey. Domestic and Foreign Policy Perspectives (Frankfurt, Peter Lang Verlag) 2015 n.d.

Wolfgang Gieler:  Conflicts in Turkish Society. Hintergründe der Proteste um den Gezi-Park (Bonn, Scientia Bonnensis) 2014.